A Weary Jersey, and Rooney, Want Change

My state, affectionately called the "Dirty Jerz" by those of us who call her home, is not what you would call a Republican friendly environment. In fact, Jersey has been bluer than blueberries (a pitch for the home state industry) since Clinton's ascension to the throne in 1992. New Jersey has subsequently been without a statewide elected Republican official since Christine Todd Whitman left for the EPA in 2001, and with a few notable exceptions, has become a virtual one-part fiefdom.

Imagine my surprise, and the amazement experienced by my fellow Jersey conservatives (few but proud), when it became clear that State Senator Tom Kean has a fighting chance to knock off Democrat Bob Menendez. A recent Fairleigh Dickinson Poll shows Kean leading the unpopular appointed Menendez 43% to 39%. Friends, when you live in a region where Democrat politicians are the default governing class, and in which Republican victors are as rare as desert rain, good election news is not easily embraced. It may take awhile to digest the reality of a competitive Republican with an actual shot at victory in November. I'm still waiting for a union hack, sleazy Trenton operative or North Jersey machine thug to pull a lever and give Menendez a magical 10pt bounce. You call me cynical; I say scarred is a more appropriate diagnosis. Just as poor Doug Forrester. But then again, your humble Republic Square political team predicted this very potentiality. I have been arguing (and you have been dutifully absorbing) that the prevailing mood is anti-incumbent, not necessarily anti-GOP. Menendez is one of the least popular and little known U.S. senators, and his closet is over-flowing with 20 foot-tall skeletons from his years as a party chieftain. Recent NJ budget battles have also jostled the image of Democratic state legislators. The only thing preventing a solid Kean lead, the Dickinson people correctly note, is his redstate affiliations while running in a hostile blue environment. Again, however, not bad enough to turn down a visit from Bush '41.

Although logic cautions to remain guarded in my optimism, I am dying to feel good about New Jersey politics again. Post-Labor Day polling, as in all things, will tell the full story. Jerseyeans do have a high tolerance for corruption, but only because they have had little in the way of alternatives. A decent candidate has presented himself, and a weary populace seems to be willing to embrace change. Therefore, TRS is declaring this race an official toss-up. As Bon Jovi so eloquently refrains, "It's now or never! I ain't gonna live forever!"