Welcome to the first edition of The Republic Square's Senate race tip sheet. Every month we'll explore the top Senate races in the nation, with the kind of insight and edge that you will only find one place on the web: The Republic Square!
In this installment we explore: PENNSYLVANIA!
The buildup for this race started almost immediately following the close of the polls in 2004. Incumbent Republican Rick Santorum faces a strong challenge from State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., the son of a popular former governor. Both candidates have extremely high name-recognition.
Santorum is no stranger to tough campaigns, unseating incumbent Harris Woffard in 1994 and holding off popular Congressman Ron Klink in 2000. He is also no stranger to controversy, having made public comments regarding same-sex marriage that drew national attention. Santorum's lightning rod status has made him a target for national Democratic fundraisers. There are also rumblings that Democratic insiders would see the defeat of GOP Conference Chairman Santorum as partial retriburion for the ousting of their own Senate minority leader two years ago.
Casey's reputation is one of a pro-life Democrat, a powerful positive in heavily Catholic Pennsylvania. Otherwise, his platform is more or less the anti-Republican message that is being emailed to the talking heads by the DNC. Polls have consistently showed Casey with a comfortable lead, but more recent surveys show a tightening race. Santorum has the reputation for being a better "on the trail" campaigner, and he is expected to far outpace Casey in their televised debates. These factors could give Santorum some momentum, but he does have a large hole to dig himself out of.
Other factors contributing to this race are the undeniable Bush fatigue in the Keystone State as well as the momentum for incumbent Governor Ed Rendell. A stronger push is expected in the coming months from Republican Lynn Swann, but a major effort will be necessary from both campaigns to stem the anti-GOP wave that has covered Pennsylvania in recent elections.
In the end, Santorum will have much to overcome. National Democratic fundraisers have been salivating for two years at the prospect of taking down Santorum and PA Democrats have thrown their best candidate (minus Rendell) into the battle. This could easily be the closest watched race in the nation on election day.
TRS Assesment: Leans Democrat, but stay tuned.
P.S. Comments are especially encouraged on posts regarding political races. If you live in Pennsylvania, or any future state we profile, please share your insight (or tell us what we've got wrong in our analysis). That's what TRS is all about.
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