Bush Battles Back

The latest polls across the wire suggest that September 2006 may be a political springtime for George W. Bush (or at least a much needed Indian summer).

ABC News, NBC/WSJ and Fox News have all released polls showing the President at 40% or above. A Rasmussen poll released today shows the President at a long-lost but much welcomed 47%, a level of support not all that far off of his 2004 high. What factors are generating Bush's apparent comeback? Here are five potential Bush-buoying variables:

#5- Gas prices have plummeted, and by as much as a dollar or more in some regions of the country. A barrel of oil is now nearing the low price of $63, as compared to well over $70 earlier this year. Among other reasons for this lucky turn of events is a massive oil find in the Gulf of Mexico, in addition to Saudi prognostications that the world has tapped as little as 18% of its fossil fuel resources. Well now they tell us.

#4- The events surrounding the anniversary of 9/11, and the recent foiled terror plots in Britain, have undoubtedly refocused Americans on the seriousness of the international War on Terror. Not that everyone has suddenly re-embraced the GOP plan; more certainly, we are seeing considerable trepidation at the thought of Democratic leadership in troubled times. Maybe the GOP is not inspiring the masses at present, but the alternatives leave something to be desired for many likely voters.

#3- Americans are also paying increased attention to the election in general, one in which the GOP still (amazingly) retains a considerable GOTV and monetary advantage. The electorate remains in an anti-incumbent posture, but Democrats worry that their less-than-ideal mobilization strategy may hamper efforts to capitalize on electoral discontent. These types of factors are good for at least a few extra points in the final stretch, particularly in battleground states which the RNC will soon saturate with 60 million dollars worth of advertising (to the DNC's 12 million). Way to go, Howard. Yeaaaaaaaaaah!

#2- The economy has stayed strong. Very strong. The only potential problem on the horizon is the faltering housing market, but most experts remained divided on the seriousness of possible economic strains. Simply put, no matter how grave matters may become short of nuclear war, the health of American pocketbooks remains the most reliable indicator of voter preference. Why wouldn't it be? Why SHOULDN'T it be. Prosperity is the name of the game, and whether or not people can identify the specific cause or act impatiently from time to time, most know that money has been made during the Bush presidency.

#1- Finally, Bush is bringing the base back by refusing to blink. The President has been expected to retreat during the last weeks of the campaign, avoiding the limelight and saving face for his endangered party. To the chagrin of leftists, President Bush has characteristically struck out boldly in an attempt to make the case for his policies one final time. The cowboy analogies are too plentiful and overly cliched to type. It is unclear how successful Bush's stand will be, but the immediate effect seems to be a re-energized base.

What does all of this mean? I'm too smart for that trap. Just as in 2004 the country is moving into uncharted territory, when polling says little more what we already know: too close to call. Entirely frustrating, but a familiar tale in the current political age. What we can say has been expressed in recent Republican briefings around town, which suggest a sizable reduction in the amount of competitive House races held by Republicans. Long story short, the House is no longer a lost cause.

Soldier on, conservatives!