Incumbents out in the cold?

I had intended for my first contribution to The Republic Square to be a handicapping of the top Senate races this year, but this nugget from USA Today caught my eye. I should know better than to give America's McNewspaper any of my time, but there's nothing more laughable than tremendously slanted regional news.

WASHINGTON — Alaska Gov. Frank Murkowski's defeat in his state's Republican primary is the latest sign that incumbents are facing tougher races than usual, political analysts said Wednesday.

Murkowski got 19% of the vote Tuesday, placing last in a three-way race. His loss sets up a fall contest between Republican Sarah Palin, 42, the former mayor of Wasilla, and Democrat Tony Knowles, 63, who held the governor's seat for two terms from 1994-2002. Murkowski was burdened by a number of controversies of his own making, including his decision to appoint his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to succeed him in the U.S. Senate. Even so, the decisiveness of his defeat is an indication of the “surly” mood of the voters, according to Jennifer Duffy, an analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

“Generally speaking, incumbents get the benefit of the doubt from voters,” Duffy said. “They're not getting it this time."

Murkowski lost for one reason: his appointment of his daughter to his Senate seat (to which she was reelected in 2004, defeating the aforementioned Tony Knowles). While I will grant that the current climate does not favor congressional incumbents, the primary defeat of an already unpopular governor in a politically squirrely state does not seem to me to be the harbinger that the Beltway reporter from the USA Today leads us to believe. After all, it was only 1990 when Alaskans put Independent Walt Hickel in the big chair in Juneau.

By my count, Murkowski is the third incumbent in any federal or gubernatorial race to lose this year. He joins Cynthia McKinney (big surprise there) and Joe Lieberman, who's primary defeat has been discussed ad nauseum (including right here at TRS). In each of these cases, it would seem that the electorate dispensed of the incumbent for a very specific reason. I thus find it difficult to reach the same conclusion as Jennifer Duffy (who I normally agree with in assesing electoral politics).