Thursday, October 19, 2006

Under 3 Weeks to Go: TRS Senate Ratings


With only 18 days to go until Election'06, it's time to update TRS's race ratings. 2 weeks can still change a lot in this business, but here is where we stand:

***S E N A T E***

VA: Allen v. Webb- Likely Republican Retention

Allen has maintained a modest yet undeniable lead in most recent polls. Having weathered everything that the Dem research team had to throw at him, I have more confidence in Allen's ability to hold on than most other analysts. He remains a Republican candidate in a Red state with a good pedigree and an extensive political network that will be difficult to overcome. Webb's candidacy has not been perfect, either.


MO: Talent v. McCaskill- Lean Republican Retention

Jim Talent deserves to win, more so than any candidate up this year. And as of now, I believe that he will. While Claire McCaskill has offered a strong challenge, Talent has pulled ahead in recent polling. I've never thought McCaskill was a good candidate, and have always thought that Talent's troubles were more indicative of MO and the nation-at-large being electorally divided. MO is also a number one target for the GOP's superior stream of resources and manpower, which while I refuse to believe can win you the season alone, has to be good for winning at least one ball game.

TN: Corker v. Ford- Lean Republican Retention

If the GOP can't beat back a liberal Democratic challenge in TN, expect election night to be ugly. Luckily, I am confident that the GOP will. Ford is a charismatic candidate, but TN is a conservative state that likes their candidates a little more well-worn. I can't wrap my head around Tennessee electing a politician who wears some of the outfits Ford sports to weekend BBQs and county fairs. Corker's campaign has not been flashy enough, but recent staff changes and positive polls seem to speak of good news for the Republicans.

NJ: Kean v. Menendez- Toss-up

Easily the race in which I am the most emotionally invested. My home state needs an independent voice, and Tom Kean may be just the man to buck the machine. Menendez's ethics problems have bestowed upon him issues more akin of Republicans in this cycle, and in most polling, as had trouble breaking through the 44-46% range. Not good news for an incumbent. Granted, the Democratic machine and the state's natural liberal-leaning adds a couple points to each poll for the Democratic candidate. Nevertheless, if the last batch of polls before Election Day show "Kean 48, Menendez 45" or "Kean 49, Menendez 46", this contest could turn out to be the juiciest piece of irony in recent American political history.

MD: Cardin v. Steele- Lean Democrat Retention

I refuse to let this one go. Certainly, MD is a very blue state in a year that does not favor Republicans almost anywhere. That aside, a very conveniently ignored phenomenon this cycle has been seemingly historic apathy among black voters. Normally a given for the Democratic column in numbers around 90%, a recent Zogby survey shows African Americans either remaining unaffiliated or declining to vote in significantly higher numbers than '04. In a close race like this one, black apathy or mutiny could make this race more competitive than preelection polls would indicate. Steele is also the better candidate, and polls show his supporters considerably more likely to be voting for him than against Ben Cardin. Watch this one for serious clues regarding GOP 2006 fortunes. If Steele loses by 15%, hold on to your rear. If Steele's eeks it out or loses by less than 5, Republicans should survive nationally.

RI: Chafee v. Whitehouse- Likely Democratic Pick-up

It cannot be under-emphasized how strange it is to have a Republican anything this far north in New England, even if said Republican voted against Bush in 2004. Even if Chafee were a great candidate, the current national mood would probably not spare his job in this bastion of blue sentiment.


OH: DeWine v. Brown- Solid Democrat Pick-up

This is a painful one to watch. Sherrod Brown, who doesn't believe in free trade and also doesn't believe in wearing shoes around his congressional office, would make a horrible U.S. senator. However, when the Republican governor of OH has a 12% approval rating and the state barely went for Bush in 2004, this rust-belt behemoth is primed to do something (sorry Ohio) emotional and stupid. I would not want to sit next to Brown or Bernie Sanders in the Senate Chamber for fear of contracting, as South Park's Cartman would diagnose, a hippie disease. Mike DeWine took this one seriously at a date that made effort irrelevant, if it would have helped at all anyway...

MT: Burns v. Tester- Solid Democrat Pick-up

Burns always had close elections. Both times, he ran a solid campaign and pulled out a victory. The present difference with this campaign is that it is not at all solid. His inability to control his image, as he was able to do in prior contests without the shadow of Abramoff to haunt him, has doomed his seat to Tester control.

PA: Santorum v. Casey- Solid Democrat Pick-up

Perhaps the saddest of them all. Regardless of where you stand on Rick Santorum's controversial positions, one has to have a degree of fellow feeling for a candidate that wants to win this badly. I can empathize with a confrontational Italian guy from Northeastern blue collar town (I am one). That said, Rick has made too many mistakes in a state where conservatives must be flawless to win. He'll have a great career at a think tank.

MN, MI and WA, while close before, are all Democrat retentions that now appear out of the realm of competitiveness and unreachable for the GOP. The same goes for AZ's Jon Kyl, where the veteran GOP senator is no longer in serious danger.

SUMMARY

Of the 9 seats profiled above, the Democrats are almost assured 4 pick-ups. That puts the Senate at 51-49. The GOP has a good chance of retaining MO and TN, but this result is by no means certain. The DEMs losing MD or NJ, or the GOP dropping VA are the wild cards that could make election night very interesting. As of today a 51-49 or 50-50 Senate split looks like the most probable outcome, leaving Republicans with weak but effective control of the chamber. But what could happen? ...

***GOP Best Case Scenario***

Retain VA, MO, TN, as well as manage upsets in MD and NJ. Senate would be 53-47 Republican, a net lost of 2. Maryland is a long-shot, but watch to see if Steele gets any momentum from some solid ad buys.

***DEM Best Case Scenario***

Run the board, racking up all 6 leaners/toss-ups and grab VA as the icing on the cake. Senate becomes 52-48 Democratic, a GOP net loss of 7.



Stay tuned. Keep an eye on all of these races, particularly TN, MO, NJ, MD.

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