When we here at TRS were in the process of handicapping races last week, we made it infinitely clear that of all the races at that time clearly leaning toward one party or the other, MD had the greatest potential to become competitive.
And so it has. TRS officially amends her most prestigious ratings to reflect the fact that the MD Senate Race has moved from lean Democrat to toss-up.
So what's happened? In 1000 words or less (much less):
1. Steele has run an extraordinarily aggressive and attractive campaign. Simply put, his TV ads, stump speeches, and televised debate performances have been superbly inspiring and endearing when compared to Cardin's boorish appeals. Ben Cardin may have thought this was going to be a walk, explaining the lack of energy on his part. Guess again.
2. The Lt. Governor demolished Cardin in the last debate. Not even close. Even The Washington Post, which also oddly enough has endorsed MD Governor Erlich (R) for re-election, remarked how deflated Cardin appeared under the Steele assault. Hasn't this guy been a congressman for some time?
3. This particular item is the most intriguing to the political analyst. The Democratic Party regularly does little for African Americans in exchange for the overwhelming support this demographic has afforded. This could be ending, at least for the purposes of our current race. Michael Steele was the first African American elected statewide in MD's history, and I can't believe that counts for nothing. In addition, he has received a series of high profile endorsements from members of the black community, including Russell Simmons and the son of his former opponent Kweisi Mfume. But most critically, Cardin has snubbed blacks left and right. Recently, the congressman ducked appearances with black groups. Anger might be building and Cardin cannot afford to lose 35% of the black vote, but recent polls indicate this nightmarish reality is a distinct possibility for Ben Cardin.
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So does the Race for the Senate 2006 stand?
If Republicans win in NJ and MD, Democratic hopes to recapture the Senate are dashed. As of today, Democratic gains look to be somewhere between 2-4 seats... not enough. Also, keep an eye on MT this week. While Burns has been down for some time, word has it that some recent polls and movement on the ground may cause the GOP to make one last play for the Treasure State. Crazier things have happened, especially for the electoral ambitions of Conrad Burns.
LEAN/LIKELY DEM: PA, RI, OH, MT +4 Dems
TOSS-UP: NJ, MD possible +2 GOP or +/- for Dems
LEAN/LIKELY GOP: VA, TN, MO +/- GOP
Overall, the election forecast is showing some brighter skies for Republicans. How bright will depend on how much momentum the GOP can build in 10 days.
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