The conventional wisdom this election goes something like an LSAT logic problem:
"Congress and the President are unpopular. The GOP has a majority in both chambers and controls the White House. Therefore, Congress will soon have less Republicans."
The problem with this configuration of variables is that it leaves out the X factor- in this case, the equally low approval ratings of Democratic leaders. Joe Lieberman is not the only Democrat experiencing the angst of angry voters. Sen. Daniel Akaka from Hawaii is in danger of losing his primary, Sen. Cantwell is faltering badly in Washington State, and the Canadian-immigrant governor of Michigan looks to be on the way out. The mood of the nation is too complex to be simply " anti-Republican." Republicans just happen to have the unhappy distinction of owning more seats. No, voters are in an anti-incumbent mood this time around the electoral block, and Democratic incumbents in swing areas should be just as frightened as their GOP colleagues.
Case in point, Robert Menendez of NJ is in great peril. Recently appointed after the departure of now Gov. Jon S. Corzine, Menendez is undergoing a tough challenge from independent-minded Republican legacy Tom Kean, Jr. Typically, my home state is a Democratic lock for statewide contests. However, the Dems have an ironically similar situation in Trenton to that of the Republican debacle in DC. Recent budgetary problems (which kept me away from my beloved casinos) and sales tax hikes (which is draining my wallet faster than the slots) have seen the blame fall on the legislature also controlled by Democrats. After an equally long tenure of Democratic rule in Jersey, corruption and taxes remain out of control. SOMEONE has to take at least some of the blame eventually, and Menendez should not assume that he is automatically immune from general discontent just because of his well-oiled machine. After all, appointed officials make the most vulnerable candidates for reelection regardless of party or position.
Recent Republican losses in Jersey have been due, in part, to weak candidates. Kean may be stronger than Menendez can handle, and Sen. Bob should be wary lest he soon join Lieberman and others on the retirement golf circuit.
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News, if you please:
-Terrorists nearly strike America's airways, but terror is the unavoidable result. Many subsequent arrests in the US, UK and Italy. Terrifying and timely reminder that elections matter.
-Israel agrees to UN brokered ceasefire with Lebanon. Mission accomplished or botched? Time will tell.
-National disgrace Cindy Sheehan goes down in Crawford, TX from her self-induced fast. All I can ever think when Cindy rears her ugly head is how sorry I feel for her late son. The woman's personal situation makes humor almost impossible.
2 comments:
I would love for the situation in CT to mean trouble for Menendez, however New Jersey is a very anti-war state, and Menendez has stated his objection of the war from day 1. Unlike John Kerry's flip-flops.
So this may infact mobilize the anti-war movement and give them a sense of hope. In a close race like this even a little help for Menendez can spell trouble for Tom Kean Jr.
I think Republicans must hammer in that Iraq is only a small picture in the war on terror, and we must higlight success in Iraq as well as hammer in succes in the war on terror.
The war on terror is still very fresh in the minds of New Jerseyians especially now that we are at the 5-year mark of 9/11.
NJ politics has just sucked lately, hasn't it?
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